Solar Update
Numerous C-Class flares were observed within the past 12 hours. A long duration C3.9 event peaked at 07:38 UTC Monday morning and was located near departing Sunspot 1465 off the southwest limb. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is seen in the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 images. This plasma cloud will most likely miss Earth. Another flare measuring C5.6 near the same region followed at 10:23 UTC. Sunspot 1471 in the southeast quadrant produced a C6.0 flare at 10:41 UTC. There will continue to be a chance for C-Class flares and perhaps an isolated M-Class event.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Before rotating off the west limb of the solar disk, Region 1465 (S18W95) produced a long duration C3 x-ray flare at 30/0738Z. Associated with this event were both a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity of 645 km/s) and a non-Earth directed CME. Region 1471 (S22E45) also produced multiple C-class events and appears to be growing in sunspot area and magnetic complexity as it rotates further into view. No new sunspot regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for the next three days (01 - 03 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained at nominal levels throughout the summary period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (01 - 02 May) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position. A return to quiet levels is expected on day three (03 May) as the effects of the high speed stream wane. III. Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Apr 114 Predicted 01 May-03 May 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 112 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 007/008-007/008-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/15 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
