Saturday, July 14, 2012

latest Solar storm news and solar flare activity july 14 2012

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 199
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1914 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.


An incoming Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected this morning and could lead to Geomagnetic Storming at high latitudes. The plasma cloud was generated by an X1.4 Solar Flare on Thursday around Sunspot 1520. Continue to monitor the ACE Spacecraft Data for detection of the expected interplanetary shock. In the graph below, you will be looking for a sharp increase in solar wind speed (yellow line).
UPDATE: As of 13:30 UTC (9:30 EST), ACE has yet to detect a sharp increase in solar wind speed. The Proton Levels streaming past Earth are showing some signs of fluctuation however, and this is known to happen in advance of an incoming CME cloud.

 CME Update: The WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction has been updated and is calling for the CME Plasma Cloud to sweep past Earth by 12:00 UTC (8:00am EST) early Saturday morning (July 14). The Goddard Space Center prediction has it forecast for 3 hours earlier. The latest model shows a Solar Wind increase to near 700 km/s.