Solar flare storm activity Forecast june 13 2014
Solar activity reached high levels today as Regions 2085 (S20W58, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), 2087 (S18E43, Dac/beta-gamma-delta), and 2089 (N18E03, Dai/beta) all produced low level M-class flares. The largest flare of the period was an M3 flare at 12/2216 UTC from Region 2085. It was accompanied by Type II (est shock speed 1679 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as a 10 cm burst (220 sfu). Region 2087 produced an M2/Sf at 12/0421 UTC, an M2/1f at 12/1021 UTC, and an M1/Sf at 12/2113 UTC. Region 2089 produced an M1/Sf flare at 12/2003 UTC. Slight growth was observed in the intermediate spots of Regions 2080 (S11W64, Dki/beta-gamma-delta), 2087, and 2085. Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Region 2085. Region 2089 appeared to be in a slow growth phase. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed off both east and west limbs throughout the period, however none appeared to have an Earth-directed component. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery was only available until 12/1548 UTC. Further analysis of later CMEs will be performed as imagery becomes available. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater) for the forecast period (13-15 Jun) due to flare potential from Regions 2080, 2085, 2087, and 2089. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (13-15 Jun). There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor or greater) for the forecast period as Regions 2080 and 2085 remain in a well connected location. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind speed was in decline during the period from a high of 570 km/s at 12/0203 UTC to end of period values near 355 km/s. Total field ranged from 2 nT to 5 nT while the Bz component was mostly north ranging from -2 nT to +4 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive (away) throughout the period. .Forecast... Two enhancements in solar wind parameters are expected by mid to late on days 1 and 2 (13-14 Jun) from a potential shock enhancement from a CME that occurred on 10 Jun and an earlier faint partial halo CME from 09 June. WSA Enlil modelling predicts arrival times of these CMEs to be around 13/1200 UTC and 14/1900 UTC respectively. Solar wind speeds are expected to begin to diminish on day 3 (15 Jun) as CME effects wane. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... By approximately mid-day on day 1, a possible glancing blow from the 10 Jun CME is expected to cause active conditions with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming. By day 2 (14 Jun), quiet to active conditions are expected as CME effects persist along with the expected arrival of a second CME associated with a C9 flare on 09 Jun by late in the period. Unsettled periods are expected to persist early on day 3 (15 Jun) as CME effects diminish, followed by mostly quiet periods.
